Senin, 01 April 2019

Gold Prices Jump Modestly Following Weaker Than Expected Feb U.S. Retail Sales - Kitco News

(Kitco News) - The gold market is closed to unchanged levels as U.S. consumers spent less than expected in February.

Monday, U.S. retail sales fell 0.2% in February according to the latest data from the U.S. Commerce Department. Economists were expecting to see a 0.3% increase in retail sales.

Core sales, which strips out vehicle sales dropped 0.4% last month, up from January’s of 0.9% increase. Economists were expecting to see a 0.4% increase.

Meanwhile, the control group, which excludes autos, gas, building materials, and food services dropped 0.2% last month, beating the expected rise of 0.3%.

The gold market, which was under pressure ahead of the data is seeing some buying momentum in initial reaction. June gold futures last traded at $1,298.80 an ounce, unchanged on the day.

Avery Shenfeld, senior economist at CIBC World Markets said that the latest retail sales numbers should be taken with a grain of salt as February’s weak data was counterbalanced with strong revisions to January’s data.

“Today's retail sales data for the US reminded us to treat these "advance" figures with due skepticism,” he said. “Total retail sales dropped 0.2%, but that now comes after a 0.7% January gain that had previously been reported as only a 0.2% gain. We're going to hear a lot about the "polar vortex" (previously known as "winter") in explaining away these data and weak Q1 earnings coming up for US companies, as well as the government shutdown, and we do still expect the economy to do better in the spring.”

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https://www.kitco.com/news/2019-04-01/Gold-Prices-Jump-Modestly-Following-Weaker-Than-Expected-Feb-U-S-Retail-Sales.html

2019-04-01 12:34:00Z
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Retail sales fell in February on lower spending on building materials, electronics, and groceries - CNBC

U.S. retail sales fell in February, as consumers pulled back their spending on building materials, groceries, furniture, electronics, and clothing declined amid signs of a slowing economy.

The Commerce Department said Monday that retail sales fell 0.2 percent in February, after posting an upwardly revised gain 0.7 percent in January. Over the past year, retail sales have roughly kept pace with inflation by increasing a slight 2.2 percent.

The recent dip in consumer spending suggests that more Americans are anticipating a weaker economy this year, as global growth has declined and the stimulus from President Donald Trump's tax cuts at the end of 2017 are waning.

Sales at building materials stores plunged 4.4 percent in February. Electronics retailers and grocers posted declines of more than 1 percent.

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https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/01/retail-sales-february-2019.html

2019-04-01 12:30:36Z
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Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day - Bloomberg

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Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day  Bloomberg

Want to receive this post in your inbox every morning? Sign up here. China announces trade concessions, Chinese growth rebounds, and yes, of course there ...


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-01/five-things-you-need-to-know-to-start-your-day-jty7tnhg

2019-04-01 10:33:00Z
CAIiEMzr-me5_glpQb2JL3YGIP0qGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM

Aramco Emerges Ahead of Apple as World’s Most Profitable Company - The Wall Street Journal

DUBAI—Saudi Aramco’s net income surged nearly 50% to $111 billion last year as global oil prices rose, according to a bond prospectus issued to investors, revealing that the oil and gas firm is the most profitable company in the world.

Aramco plans to issue a $10 billion bond sale as soon as this week to help fund the acquisition of a stake in Saudi Arabia’s national petrochemicals firm. The bond prospectus is the first look under the hood at the oil firm, whose financials have largely been a state secret since the once-American-run firm was nationalized in 1988.

The oil firm’s 2018 net income shot up from 284 billion riyals, or the equivalent of $75.9 billion, in 2017. By comparison, Apple Inc.’s equivalent profit was roughly $60 billion in its last full year; Amazon.com Inc. was $10 billion and Exxon MobilCorp. was $21 billion.

The three years of financial information contained in the prospectus illustrate how tightly Aramco’s profits are tied to oil prices. Aramco reported a significantly lower net profit in 2016 of $13.2 billion, the prospectus said, when prices fell to a monthly low of $31.90.

According to the prospectus, Aramco’s revenues were $355 billion in 2018, and its operating profit, before interest and tax, was %$212 billion

The numbers allow investors to evaluate the oil firm ahead of what could be the world’s biggest ever initial public offering. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman wants to attract capital to the kingdom as part of his plan to diversify its oil-dependent economy and has said he intends to list Aramco in 2021 after years of delays.

Prince Mohammed previously announced he would list 5% of Aramco in 2018 at a valuation of roughly $2 trillion, though that process was delayed due to concerns, among other issues, that the worth of the company wasn’t close to the royal’s estimate.

The figures released Monday by ratings firms indicate a much lower potential valuation for Aramco, up to about $1.4 trillion, according to analysts.

Aramco posted the massive earnings last year numbers despite taxes of roughly 50% to the government, which is highly reliant on contributions from the oil firm. Aramco also pays a royalty to the government of 20% of revenues up to $70 a barrel of oil, and the rate increases on a sliding scale at prices above that level. Fitch estimates that from 2015-2017, Aramco accounted for around 70% of the country’s revenues.

Aramco has chosen banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley to manage its first debt offering and hold a roadshow beginning Monday in at least eight cities in the U.S., Europe and Asia, according to people familiar with the matter. Investment bank Lazard is also an independent adviser on the bond sale.

The financial information issued by the ratings firms is the first look under the hood at Aramco, whose financials have been a state secret since the once-American-run firm was nationalized in 1988.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is pushing the kingdom and its oil firm to become more financially transparent as part of his wider social and economic reform plan. Prince Mohammed wants to attract capital to the kingdom to diversify the oil-dependent economy and had planned to IPO Aramco in 2018. That process has since stalled due to valuation concerns among other factors, and officials have pivoted to a bond issuance.

An Aramco oil tank is seen at Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah oilfield in Saudi Arabia.
An Aramco oil tank is seen at Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah oilfield in Saudi Arabia. Photo: ahmed jadallah/Reuters

The proceeds from the bond would be used for as a down payment on its $69.1 billion purchase of 70% of Saudi Basic Industries Corp., with the remainder of the acquisition paid in installments over time, The Wall Street Journal has reported. The ratings firms said Monday that installments would be paid up to 2021, according to their discussions with Aramco management.

Aramco is buying the 70% stake from Saudi Arabia’s sovereign-wealth fund, Public Investment Fund, which is expected to use the proceeds to drive Prince Mohammed’s agenda. The fund is developing new cities and entire industries in Saudi Arabia and has invested or committed nearly $100 billion to partnerships such as SoftBank Group Corp.’s Vision Fund and stakes in technology firms such as Uber Technologies Inc.

Ahead of the Aramco bond sale, agencies published ratings on the oil firm for the first time. Fitch rated Aramco at A+, the fifth-highest investment grade level and the same as Saudi Arabia’s sovereign bonds. The firm also said it assessed the company’s stand-alone credit profile, ignoring sovereign-related risks, at AA+, or one notch above the level at which the Saudi government itself can raise debt.

Moody’s likewise rated Aramco A1, a similar level to Fitch, and noted that the oil firm’s ties to the government meant it couldn’t be assessed higher.

Exxon Mobil Corp. is rated AAA by Moody’s, its highest level.

“Saudi Aramco’s rating is constrained by the rating of the government of Saudi Arabia given the broad credit linkages between the two,” Moody’s said on Monday, adding that a sovereign credit upgrade or downgrade would impact Aramco’s rating.

Analysts have long waited to see Aramco’s financials and information about its reserves. In 2018, Aramco reported $355.9 billion in revenue and other income related to sales and $111.1 billion in net income, Moody’s said. Its operating profit, before interest, tax and depreciation, was $224 billion, Fitch said. The rating agency didn’t publish a net income figure.

Saudi Aramco also has a strong liquidity position, according to the ratings firms. As of year-end 2018, the company had $48.8 billion in cash compared with $27 billion of group debt. Fitch said it forecasts Saudi Aramco’s net debt rising to around $35 billion by 2021, after incorporating the Sabic transaction. Sabic will contribute around $8 billion a year to Aramco’s income from operations, Fitch said.

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Saudi Aramco is the world’s largest oil producer by volume, Fitch said. The oil firm’s 2018 total hydrocarbon production averaged 13.6 million barrels of oil equivalent a day, including natural gas output, ahead of global and regional producers such as Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, Royal Dutch Shell PLC, Total SA and BP PLC, the ratings agency said.

Saudi Aramco estimates its proved liquids reserves at 227 billion barrels and its total hydrocarbon reserves at 257 billion barrels of oil equivalent. Aramco’s net cash position at the end of last year was $48.8 billion and total borrowings were $27 Billion, according to the bond prospectus. It made 69% of revenues last year from upstream oil and gas and the remainder from so-called downstream operations.

Write to Rory Jones at rory.jones@wsj.com and Summer Said at summer.said@wsj.com

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/aramco-is-the-most-profitable-company-on-earth-ratings-agencies-say-11554102173

2019-04-01 10:29:00Z
CAIiEC-CWbktve6ps8K63vzY1qQqGAgEKg8IACoHCAow1tzJATDnyxUwmK20AQ

Aramco Emerges Ahead of Apple as World’s Most Profitable Company - The Wall Street Journal

DUBAI—Saudi Aramco made $111 billion in net income last year, according to rating agency Moody’s Investors Service, making the oil and gas firm the most profitable company in the world.

Moody’s and Fitch Ratings published snapshots of Aramco’s financials on Monday as they rated the oil firm ahead of a $10 billion Aramco bond sale expected for as soon as this week. Aramco plans to disclose financial statements for the first time via a bond prospectus, and use the issuance to help fund the acquisition of a stake in Saudi Arabia’s national petrochemicals firm.

The firm generated net income of $111 billion last year, Moody’s said. By comparison, Apple Inc.’s equivalent profit was roughly $60 billion in its last full year; Amazon.com Inc. was $10 billion and Exxon Mobil Corp. was $21 billion.

State-owned Aramco posted those earnings numbers despite taxes of roughly 50% to the government, which is highly reliant on contributions from Aramco. Fitch estimates that from 2015-2017, Aramco accounted for around 70% of the country’s revenues.

Saudi Arabian Oil Co., as Aramco is officially known, has chosen banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley to manage its first debt offering and hold a roadshow beginning Monday in at least eight cities in the U.S., Europe and Asia, according to people familiar with the matter.

The financial information issued by the ratings firms is the first look under the hood at Aramco, whose financials have been a state secret since the once-American-run firm was nationalized in 1988.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is pushing the kingdom and its oil firm to become more financially transparent as part of his wider social and economic reform plan. Prince Mohammed wants to attract capital to the kingdom to diversify the oil-dependent economy and had planned to IPO Aramco in 2018. That process has since stalled due to valuation concerns among other factors, and officials have pivoted to a bond issuance.

An Aramco oil tank is seen at Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah oilfield in Saudi Arabia.
An Aramco oil tank is seen at Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah oilfield in Saudi Arabia. Photo: ahmed jadallah/Reuters

The proceeds from the bond would be used for as a down payment on its $69.1 billion purchase of 70% of Saudi Basic Industries Corp., with the remainder of the acquisition paid in installments over time, The Wall Street Journal has reported. The ratings firms said Monday that installments would be paid up to 2021, according to their discussions with Aramco management.

Aramco is buying the 70% stake from Saudi Arabia’s sovereign-wealth fund, Public Investment Fund, which is expected to use the proceeds to drive Prince Mohammed’s agenda. The fund is developing new cities and entire industries in Saudi Arabia and has invested or committed nearly $100 billion to partnerships such as SoftBank Group Corp.’s Vision Fund and stakes in technology firms such as Uber Technologies Inc.

Fitch rated Aramco at A+, the fifth-highest investment grade level and the same as Saudi Arabia’s sovereign bonds. The firm also said it assessed the company’s stand-alone credit profile, ignoring sovereign-related risks, at AA+, or one notch above the level at which the Saudi government itself can raise debt.

Moody’s likewise rated Aramco A1, a similar level to Fitch, and noted that the oil firm’s ties to the government meant it couldn’t be assessed higher.

Exxon Mobil Corp. is rated AAA by Moody’s, its highest level.

“Saudi Aramco’s rating is constrained by the rating of the government of Saudi Arabia given the broad credit linkages between the two,” Moody’s said on Monday, adding that a sovereign credit upgrade or downgrade would impact Aramco’s rating.

Analysts have long waited to see Aramco’s financials and information about its reserves. In 2018, Aramco reported $355.9 billion in revenue and other income related to sales and $111.1 billion in net income, Moody’s said. Its operating profit, before interest, tax and depreciation, was $224 billion, Fitch said. The rating agency didn’t publish a net income figure.

Saudi Aramco also has a strong liquidity position, according to the ratings firms. As of year-end 2018, the company had $48.8 billion in cash compared with $27 billion of group debt.

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Fitch said it forecasts Saudi Aramco’s net debt rising to around $35 billion by 2021, after incorporating the Sabic transaction. Sabic will contribute around $8 billion a year to Aramco’s income from operations, Fitch said.

Saudi Aramco is the world’s largest oil producer by volume, Fitch said. The oil firm’s 2018 total hydrocarbon production averaged 13.6 million barrels of oil equivalent a day, including natural gas output, ahead of global and regional producers such as Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, Royal Dutch Shell PLC, Total SA and BP PLC, the ratings agency said.

Saudi Aramco estimates its proved liquids reserves at 227 billion barrels and its total hydrocarbon reserves at 257 billion barrels of oil equivalent.

Write to Rory Jones at rory.jones@wsj.com

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/aramco-is-the-most-profitable-company-on-earth-ratings-agencies-say-11554102173

2019-04-01 07:45:00Z
CAIiEC-CWbktve6ps8K63vzY1qQqFwgEKg8IACoHCAow1tzJATDnyxUw54IY

Shares in Shenzhen pop as Chinese economic activity sees unexpected bounce - CNBC

Stocks in Shenzhen surged on Thursday after a series of data released on Sunday and Monday showed Chinese economic activity improved unexpectedly in March.

By the market close, the Shenzhen component jumped around 3.64 percent to 10,267.70 and the Shenzhen composite soared 3.571 percent to 1,755.67.

Meanwhile, the CSI 300, which tracks the largest stocks listed on the mainland, advanced 2.62 percent to 3,973.93.

Those moves came after both the private Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index and the official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for March expanded unexpectedly, surprising analysts.

The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) came in at 50.8 for March. Analysts had expected it to come in at 49.9 for a second month, according to a Reuters poll of economists. A reading below 50 signals contraction, while a reading above that level indicates expansion.

That came on the back of Sunday's release of the official PMI in China, which rose to 50.5 in March from February's three-year low of 49.2. It marked the first expansion in four months, according to data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics.

"Our view is the impact of policy easing is gradually kicking in, pushing up sequential growth indicators such as PMI first," economists from Bank of America-Merrill Lynch said in a note.

In particular, they said, the "larger-than-expected tax/fee cuts and improving financial conditions" likely provided a boost to business sentiment in the country's manufacturing space. Furthermore, demand for industrial restocking could also have risen as commodity and raw material prices experienced a rebound.

"I think this is indeed a good number," Tan Min Lan, head of the Asia Pacific chief investment office at UBS Wealth Management, told CNBC's "Street Signs" on Monday.

"It is a critical number because (I) recall that a couple of weeks back one of the key concern(s) of the market is that when factories shut during the Chinese New Year period, they may not (reopen) if orders do not materialize," she said.

"I think this set of data, it's critical, it's important because it suggests that production did not fall over the cliff and that the fears over industrial deflation and the fears over an unemployment surge may have been overplayed," Tan added.

The manufacturing numbers come amid ongoing tariff talks between the U.S. and China aimed at resolving their trade differences. High-level trade negotiations between the two economic powerhouses are set to resume in Washington this week following last week's talks in Beijing.

— Reuters and CNBC's Huileng Tan contributed to this report.

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2019-04-01 05:46:25Z
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Minggu, 31 Maret 2019

Jeff Bezos investigator: Saudi Arabia obtained private information - CNN

"Our investigators and several experts concluded with high confidence that the Saudis had access to Bezos' phone, and gained private information," Gavin de Becker wrote in an opinion article for the Daily Beast that was published Saturday. He did not offer concrete evidence supporting his allegations against the Saudi government. De Becker said that his findings have been turned over to federal officials and that he won't share details of the investigation out of respect to those officials, adding "I intend today's writing to be my last public statement on the matter."
He added that it is not clear whether the National Enquirer's parent company American Media Inc., or AMI, "was aware of the details."
AMI responded to de Becker's allegation in a statement to CNN Business on Sunday saying that it relied on one source, Sanchez's brother, Michael Sanchez, for its story.
"Despite the false and unsubstantiated claims of Mr. de Becker, American Media has, and continues to, refute the unsubstantiated claims that the materials for our report were acquired with the help of anyone other than the single source who first brought them to us ... there was no involvement by any other third party whatsoever."
Saudi Arabia denies any relationship to the Bezos story, according to de Becker. Saudi Arabian officials and de Becker did not respond to CNN's requests for comment regarding the op-ed over the weekend.
De Becker's article raises the stakes surrounding the National Enquirer's tabloid exposé of a romantic relationship between the billionaire Amazon CEO and Sanchez, a former anchor for Fox's local station in Los Angeles. Bezos has implied that AMI tried to extort him to please the Saudi government — which allegedly has links to AMI and is upset with Bezos-owned Washington Post's coverage of murdered columnist Jamal Khashoggi —or President Donald Trump. AMI says that's not the case.
Writing for the Daily Beast, Bezos' investigator Gavin de Becker accused the Saudi government of leaking proof of Bezos' extramarital relatoinship to the National Enquirer because of the Washington Post's coverage of Jamal Khashoggi's death.
In the Daily Beast, de Becker wrote that he and his team spoke with current and former AMI executives and sources, Middle East intelligence experts, Saudi whistleblowers and dissidents, as well as current and former advisers to President Trump, among others, before reaching the conclusion.
The National Enquirer tried to "strong-arm an American citizen whom[Saudi Arabia's] country's leadership wanted harmed, compromised, and silenced," according to de Becker.
Both Bezos and the Washington Post have been criticized repeatedly by the president, who has his own links to American Media.
AMI chairman David Pecker is a longtime friend of Trump's, and the Enquirer was one of Trump's most reliable and enthusiastic media boosters during the campaign. The publisher has admitted to making a payment of $150,000 in cooperation with members of Trump's presidential campaign to prevent former Playboy model Karen McDougal's claims of an affair with Trump from being made public during the 2016 race. Trump denied the affair.
Federal prosecutors ultimately struck a non-prosecution agreement with the publisher, effectively ruling out charges for AMI over its role in securing hush money from Trump's personal lawyer Michael Cohen.
Billionaire divorce. Supermarket tabloid. Extortion claim — Jeff Bezos and the National Enquirer
De Becker believes that the texts and photographs sent from Bezos and Lauren Sanchez were shared with the National Enquirer by Michael Sanchez.
But de Becker claims that the National Enquirer knew about the messages before approaching Sanchez. Sanchez told CNN Business that AMI was already pursuing a story about the relationship when it came to him. He added that "de Becker's latest smoke-and-mirrors distraction " contained "zero evidence."
In its statement, AMI said that "the fact of the matter is, it was Michael Sanchez who tipped the National Enquirer off to the affair on Sept. 10, 2018, and over the course of four months provided all of the materials for our investigation." The spokesperson added that Sanchez's "continued efforts to discuss and falsely represent our reporting, and his role in it, has waived any source confidentiality."
De Becker argues that the first source is the Saudi Arabian government. He said that the Saudi leadership wanted to harm Bezos because of the Washington Post's coverage of Khashoggi's death. Khashoggi, who had been critical of Saudi Arabia and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, was killed and dismembered in the Saudi Arabian consulate in Istanbul in the fall.
The Saudis have presented shifting stories about Khashoggi's fate, initially denying any knowledge before arguing that a group of rogue operators, many of whom belong to bin Salman's inner circle, were responsible for the journalist's death. Riyadh has maintained that neither bin Salman nor King Salman knew of the operation to target Khashoggi. US officials, however, have said such a mission — including 15 men sent from Riyadh — could not have been carried out without the authorization of bin Salman.
The Washington Post has been closely covering the incident, and Bezos was the target of a pro-Saudi campaign wielded by Saudi social media users and a Saudi journalist in the wake of Khashoggi's death that called for a boycott against Amazon and Souq, an e-commerce site owned by Amazon.
As questions linger around Jeff Bezos' explosive suggestions, identity of tabloid leaker is confirmed
Bezos himself called attention to the connection between AMI and Saudi Arabia in an explosive blog post he published to Medium in February accusing AMI of trying to blackmail him with proof of the affair.
In the post, Bezos noted that AMI has been investigated "for various actions they've taken on behalf of the Saudi Government."
He pointed to an Associated Press story about AMI's publication of a glossy magazine celebrating Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's visit to the United States in April 2018. AMI denied that Saudis had directed the magazine's production or paid for it, but the AP reported that three weeks before the prince's arrival, the media company sent a copy to the Saudi embassy, where it circulated among officials who then shared it with Washington foreign policy contacts. AMI said it didn't share an advance copy of the report with the Saudis, AP said in their story.
De Becker also referred to the story as evidence of a connection between AMI and the Saudi government.
Saudi Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Adel al-Jubeir has in the past denied any connection between his country and AMI to CNN.
-— CNN's Brian Stelter, Oliver Darcy, Tom Kludt, Nicole Gaouette, Nada Altaher, Chandler Thornton and Sheena McKenzie contributed to this report.

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https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/31/media/jeff-bezos-gavin-de-becker-saudi-arabia-leak/index.html

2019-04-01 01:26:00Z
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