Private payrolls add 129K in March vs. 173K est.: ADP/Moody's Analytics - CNBC

Job growth hit an 18-month low in March amid increasing signs that the hiring boom may be running out of steam, according to a report Wednesday from ADP and Moody's Analytics.

Private payrolls increased by just 129,000 for the month, well below the 173,000 that economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected. The weakness was offset somewhat by an upward revision for February, which went to 197,000 from an initially reported 183,000.

Overall, though, March was the worst month since September 2017, which saw an increase of just 111,000.

"The job market is weakening, with employment gains slowing significantly across most industries and company sizes," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said in a statement. "Businesses are hiring cautiously as the economy is struggling with fading fiscal stimulus, the trade uncertainty, and the lagged impact of Fed tightening. If employment growth weakens much further, unemployment will begin to rise."

All of the gains came from services, which increased 135,000, while goods-producing industries lost 6,000 positions. A decline of 6,000 in construction and 2,000 in manufacturing was offset a bit by a 2,000-job increase in natural resources and mining.

On the plus side, education and health services saw an increase of 56,000 while professional and business services added 41,000. Leisure and hospitality grew by 13,000 while information services increased by 11,000 and trade, transportation and utilities contributed 9,000. Financial activities saw a drop of 1,000.

The disappointing number comes as Wall Street is watching the jobs market closely for signs of an economic slowdown. The Labor Department's nonfarm payrolls count is released Friday, with economists looking for growth of 175,000 after February's weak 20,000 reading.

Zandi, who said he expects the government count to be closer to 140,000, attributed much of the jobs issues to weakening business sentiment fueled in part by the U.S.-China trade dispute.

"The widespread expectation is that the Trump administration and the Chinese will come to terms here and get a deal and this trade war will end. But until it does, the uncertainty created by the conflict is weighing heavily on the collective psyche," Zandi said in a conference call.

ADP and the government counts often conflict, as evidenced by the 177,000 disparity in the February total.

Small businesses, which have been a major growth engine for hiring, struggled in March with just 6,000 net new hires, according to the ADP/Moody's report. The biggest gains game from firms with between 50 and 499 employees, which grew by 63,000, while large companies added 60,000.

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2019-04-03 12:15:02Z
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Stock Futures Climb; Chip Stocks Lead Nasdaq, S&P 500, Dow Jones - Investor's Business Daily

Stock futures hustled to early gains Wednesday, with chip stocks leading, while some top trade-sensitive Dow Jones stocks lagged.

X

Nasdaq 100 futures led the early gains, swinging 0.6% above fair value. Dow futures and S&P 500 futures hammered out advances of 0.4% apiece. (For updates on this story and other market coverage, visit the Stock Market Today.)

Chip stocks shifted firmly higher, with ST Microelectronics (STM) scoring a big premarket move, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Cypress Semiconductor (CY) poised for possible breakouts. Intel (INTC) and new issue Dow (DOW) each climbed more than 1% to lead the Dow Jones industrials.

Caterpillar (CAT) and Boeing (BA) dropped to the bottom of the Dow.

Amazon.com (AMZN) and Intel were both rising within buy ranges. Micron Technologies (MU) led the Nasdaq 100. AMD topped the S&P 500. Dave & Buster's Entertainment (DAVE) soared after reporting fourth-quarter results late Tuesday. Boot Barn Holdings (BOOT) appeared set to retake a buy point, lodging a 5% surge in premarket trade.

Dow Jones, S&P 500 Near Fresh Highs

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended Tuesday's session 2.9% below its October high, holding firmly above the 26,000 level. The S&P 500 is 2.5% below its peak from September, maintaining support above the 2,800 mark. The Nasdaq is 3.6% off its August high. All of the index's 2018 peaks occurred in concert with tariff- or sanction-related policy announcements.

For more detailed analysis of the current stock market and its confirmed uptrend, study the Big Picture.

Chip Stocks: Intel, Advanced Micro Get Buy Ratings

Chip stock Intel jumped 1.3% ahead of the open, after Nomura initiated coverage on the stock with a buy rating. The note placed a price target for the stock at 65, almost 20% above Tuesday's closing price.

Intel remains in a buy range, after topping a 54.20 buy point in a cup-with-handle base in mid-March. Shares remain in buy range through 56.91.

Advanced Micro Devices sparked 4.5% higher. Nomura also initiated coverage on the stock with a buy rating and a 33 price target. AMD stock ended Tuesday 5% below a potential buy point at 28.21, in a possible six-month cup-with-handle base. The base is 53% deep, which adds some risk to any potential breakout.

Stock Futures: Amazon, Netflix Advance

Amazon.com paced the FANG stock tech leaders in early action with a 0.8% gain. The IBD Leaderboard stock ended Tuesday at the very top of a buy range above a 1,736.51 buy point. The buy range runs through 1823.33.

Netflix climbed 0.7%, possibly receiving a boost from Tuesday's news that the Justice Department had warned the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences that barring content from streaming services such as Netflix could violate antitrust laws.

Netflix, an IBD Leaderboard watch list stock, ended Tuesday 1% below a 371.59 buy point in a cup-with-handle base.

Hiring Slows, Mortgage Action Surges

U.S. non-farm private sector employers added 129,000 workers in March, according to ADP's National Employment Report. That was down from 183,000 new hires in February, and well below forecasts for a decrease to 165,000 new jobs. Service sector employers added 135,000 new workers, while employment among goods producers decreased by 6,000. Education and health posted the largest increase: 56,000 new jobs.

Mortgage application activity spiked for a second straight week as mortgage rates posted their biggest one-week drop in a decade, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Mortgage application volume swelled 18.6% vs. the prior week and was up 28% over year-ago levels. Refinance applications soared 39% week-over-week, and 58% above year-ago activity.

Mortgage-related ETFs VanEck Vectors Mortgage REIT Income (MORT) and UBS ETRACS Monthly Pay 2xLeveraged Mortgage REIT (MORL) were unchanged in premarket trade.

Researcher Markit is scheduled to release its March services sector purchasing managers index at 9:45 a.m. ET. The Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing index is due out at 10 a.m. ET.

U.S.-China Trade War Final Push?

Chinese Vice Premier Liu He meets with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer in Washington, D.C., today, as negotiations push to close what appear to be last-mile gaps in a restructured U.S.-China trade relationship.

Trade optimism sent China's markets higher, with both the Shanghai Composite and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index taking better-than 1% gains. Japan followed suit, with Tokyo's Nikkei 225 jumping 1%.

China-facing ETFs traded generally higher on U.S. markets. The Direxion Daily CSI 300 China A Share Bull 2X (CHAU) and Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3X (YINN) each swept 3.1% higher in premarket trade. The iShares MSCI China (MCHI) was unchanged.

Prime Minister Shakes Up Brexit Talks

Prime Minister Theresa May abandoned her effort to muster support for her existing Brexit proposal, offering to compromise with opposition Labour leaders and to implement any deal that was agreed to by a majority of lawmakers. The shift in stance points to a much "softer" Brexit plan than had been favored by May's Conservative party, and points to a less severe change than many Brexiteers had hoped for in the U.K.'s relationship to the European Union.

May plans to request a short delay to the U.K.'s already extended deadline for exit from the trade bloc, currently set for April 12. Europe's markets were mixed on May's strategy, with London's FTSE 100 trading a fraction in the red near midday. Frankfurt's DAX sprung 1% higher and the CAC-40 in Paris gained 0.6%.

Boot Barn Set To Stomp Buy Point

Boot Barn saddled up to retake a buy point, and gained nearly 5% ahead of the open. The stock blew past a 29.88 flat base buy point in weak trade Monday. It reversed back below the entry during Tuesday's session. The buy range runs through 31.37. It's important to remember that not all premarket moves carry over into regular trade.

According to IBD Stock Checkup, the footwear chain has a very strong 96 IBD Composite Rating. The Composite Rating is a blend of key fundamental and technical metrics to help investors gauge the strengths of a company's stock.

Oil Prices Inch Up Ahead Of Data

Oil prices chalked up narrow gains ahead of Energy Information Administration weekly supplies data due out at 10:30 a.m. ET. West Texas Intermediate crept a fraction higher to $62.62 a barrel. Brent crude gained 0.4% to $69.64. WTI is at its highest level since the first week of November.

Oil-focused ETFs Citigroup Global Markets VelocityShares 3x Long (UWT) was down 0.1%, the United States Oil Fund (USO) added 0.2%, in early trade.

Follow Alan R. Elliott on Twitter @IBD_Aelliott

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2019-04-03 13:05:56Z
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World stocks rally to six-month highs on U.S.-China trade optimism - Investing.com

© Reuters. The German share price index DAX graph at the stock exchange in Frankfurt

By Dhara Ranasinghe

LONDON (Reuters) - World stocks rallied to six-month highs on Wednesday as investors cheered signs of progress in U.S.-China trade talks and reassuring economic data, helping push Germany's 10-year bond yield back up to zero percent.

Oil neared the key $70 per barrel mark -- a multi-month high -- on supply concerns.

Sterling extended its gains after British Prime Minister Theresa May said late on Tuesday she would seek another Brexit delay to agree an EU divorce deal with the opposition Labour Party leader, raising hopes of a "softer" Brexit.

Signs of progress in U.S.-China trade talks and decent factory activity data from China and the United States in recent days has lifted investor sentiment and taken the edge off world recession fears.

Europe's stock markets rose almost 0.8 percent to their highest since August, tracking strong overnight gains in Asia where MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan climbed to a seven-month peak.

Hopes for a deal to end the trade war between the world's two largest economies were fanned by fresh comments from White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow that Washington expects "to make more headway" in talks this week.

"We're being told that we're 90 percent of the way there which is obviously encouraging but the final 10 percent -- which apparently includes the enforcement mechanism and the removal of tariffs -- could take some time to iron out," said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda in London.

"Investors are happy to be patient here in the hope that the two sides get this right and put an end to a trade war that has clearly taken its toll on markets."

Germany's stock market rose 1 percent to its highest level since October, while in Paris, French stocks scaled a similar high. The stronger tone to the pound, however weighed on London's index, which was a touch lower.

Generally strong world stocks and hopes of a softer Brexit sparked a sell-off in safe-haven government bonds, pushing yields off recent lows.

rose almost 4 basis points to 2.52 percent.

Germany's benchmark 10-year German Bund yield rose to 0.005 percent. A week ago it hit a 2-1/2 year low at around minus 0.09 percent on concern about the weak economic growth backdrop.

"What we're seeing is that markets have climbed a world of worry but there is progress on trade, a recession is unlikely, central banks have made nods to more dovish policy," said Chris Bailey, European Strategist at Raymond James. "If you put that into the mix I'm not surprised risk assets have moved up."

Oil prices stood near multi-month highs amid concerns about supply. rose to as high as $69.92 per barrel, its highest since November and near the psychologically important level of $70 per barrel.

It was last up 0.6 percent at $69.80. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 0.34 percent to $62.79 per barrel.

News that the United States is considering more sanctions against Iran, the fourth-largest producer of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and the halting of production at a crude terminal in Venezuela threatened to squeeze supply and pushed oil prices up on Tuesday.

BREXIT ROLLER COASTER

Sterling rose further as traders welcomed news that Britain's May would begin cross-party talks with the opposition Labour party as a signal that Britain will end up with a "softer" exit from the European Union.

The pound strengthened 0.4 percent higher at $1.3196, its highest since March 28. The British currency had slipped below $1.30 on Friday on growing fears of a no-deal Brexit.

The dollar strengthened 0.2 percent against the yen to 111.54 and the euro added 0.1 percent to buy $1.12170.

The , which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major rivals, eased 0.19 percent to 97.176.

Cryptocurrency bitcoin, which surged 18.7 percent on Tuesday following a major order by an anonymous buyer, extended its gains by another 1.6 percent to $4,977.48.

dipped 0.08 percent to trade at $1,291.31 per ounce.

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2019-04-03 08:42:00Z
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Tokyo prosecutors preparing new case against Ghosn over Oman payments: report - Japan Today

Tokyo prosecutors are preparing to build a fresh case against ousted Nissan Motor Co Ltd chairman Carlos Ghosn over suspect payments the automaker made to a business partner in Oman, Japan's Yomiuri newspaper reported on Wednesday.

Tokyo prosecutors are in discussions with the Supreme Public Prosecutors Office and others and plan to make a decision soon on whether to prosecute Ghosn on further charges of aggravated breach of trust, the newspaper said, citing sources involved in the case.

A spokesman for the Tokyo prosecutors office said he was not aware of any new investigation when contacted by Reuters.

Ghosn's spokesman has previously said payments of $32 million made over nine years were rewards for the Oman firm being a top Nissan dealer. Such dealer incentives were not directed by Ghosn and the funds were not used to pay any personal debt, the spokesman said.

Ghosn was arrested in Tokyo in November and faces charges of financial misconduct and aggravated breach of trust over allegedly failing to report around $82 million in salary and temporarily transferring personal financial losses onto Nissan's books during the financial crisis.

Ghosn, who previously headed the Renault-Nissan alliance, denies the charges. He was released on bail last month as he awaits trial.

Sources told Reuters earlier this week that Renault SA had alerted French prosecutors after uncovering suspect payments to a Renault-Nissan business partner in Oman while Ghosn was chief executive of the French automaker.

Nissan had previously established that its own regional subsidiary had made questionable payments of more than $30 million to the Oman distributor, Suhail Bahwan Automobiles (SBA).

Evidence sent to French prosecutors late last week showed that much of the cash was subsequently channelled to a Lebanese company controlled by Ghosn associates, the sources said.

Reuters has not been able to reach SBA for comment on the matter.

© (c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2019.

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2019-04-03 06:22:30Z
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Bitcoin spike blamed on an April Fools' joke — but that's not why it rallied - CNBC

Bitcoin wasn't immune to April Fools' Day jokes.

One prank in particular got some credit for boosting the price of the world's largest cryptocurrency. After bitcoin broke above $5,000 on Tuesday, its highest level of the year, some blamed trading algorithms designed to buy or sell based on news. As some speculated, robots triggered a buying frenzy after an April Fools' Day article by Finance Magnates outlined an "emergency meeting" by regulators over the weekend to approve a bitcoin exchange traded fund.

But multiple experts say the buzz was not responsible for bitcoin's recovery. Hunter Horsley, whose company Bitwise is was mentioned in the April Fool's Day report, said there was no truth to the ETF rumor.

"It's absurd to believe this market move is the result of confusion about the Bitcoin ETF filings," said Horsley, CEO of Bitwise, which is in the process of applying for the first-ever bitcoin ETF. "Though ETFs and April Fools are topical, there are lots of reasons this is an unlikely explanation."

The most likely explanation, he said, is a Reuters report of a private buyer purchasing more than $100 million worth of bitcoin over of a short period. Given the small daily trading volume of bitcoin, "that order would be enough to have an impact," he said.

"Crypto is famous for a long history of volatility like this. It's always hard to pin down the true impetus, and often the real source is not obvious," Horsely said.

TWEET

Another rumor was that Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett — one of bitcoin's most vocal critics — was diversifying into the asset class. As Founder and CEO of BKCM Brian Kelly put it, "there's no way" that's the reason.

A more realistic possibility is that bitcoin hit a key technical level, he said. Kelly poined to a key $4,200 price level triggering a stop loss trade. In bitcoin and other assets, traders will often set a certain level for when they automatically cover their short. It may also be a sign that fundamentals are improving and bitcoin is running out of sellers, according to Kelly.

"Everyone who panicked and sold is already out," Kelly told CNBC Tuesday.

TWEET

Arca Funds CIO Jeff Dorman, a former trader for Lehman, Merrill, Citadel said even if buying by trading algorithms kicked off the euphoria, that would have reversed quickly if investors were eager to sell. Instead, the rally boosted bitcoin to its highest level since November. This particular rally was caused by a "simple" imbalance of more sellers than buyers, he said.

"The large magnitudes of the moves in crypto make it more interesting of a story, but it's not that different than any other asset class," Dorman said. "Buyers outweighed sellers, and market makers felt the pressure so they took their markets higher, which triggered stop losses and liquidations, which added more buy pressure."

Bitcoin prices have seen a relatively calm 2019 after a year of volatility. The cryptocurrency fell roughly 75 percent last year after climbing to a high of almost $20,000 at the end of 2017. It has has yet to recover anywhere near high that since and was trading near $4,728 on Tuesday afternoon.

But still, Dorman said some investors may be looking to get back in.

"The fact that every small dip has been bought immediately in the last few weeks shows that investors are not scared of sell-offs, they are hoping for them so they can buy more," he said. "This certainly raises the near-term floor, but this sentiment can change on a dime too."

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2019-04-02 18:00:55Z
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Bitcoin storms higher, rises 20% and tops $5,000 for the first time in 2019 - MarketWatch

Bitcoin prices surged higher on Tuesday, rising as much as 20% at trading above $5,000 for the first time in since November 2018.

Bitcoin BTCUSD, +14.47%  was changing hands at $4,765.85 in recent action, up 14.9% since Monday’s level at 5 p.m. Eastern time. The cryptocurrency hit a session high at $5,061, a gain of 22.9% on the day.

The market value of all cryptocurrencies rose more than $15 billion in less than 90 minutes on Tuesday, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Read: Bitcoin jumped as much as 20%: Here’s what experts are saying about the move

What are analysts saying

After months in the doldrums, bitcoin aficionados have awakened with several now calling the December 2018 low near $3,200 as a medium-term bottom.

“After being in bear territory there is a growing sense that bitcoin is back. I’m now calling that the market has bottomed and the so-called crypto winter has come to an end,” wrote Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, a U.K. consulting firm.

“I believe bitcoin will now move higher over the next few weeks and months, making steady gains for investors. As the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, this will have a positive impact on prices in the wider crypto sector,” Green wrote.

Bitcoin Cash explodes through $200

Bitcoin’s surge dragged altcoins, the group of coins other than bitcoin, higher. Ether, ETHUSD, +11.25%  the second-largest digital currency by market value rose 11% to $156.19, Litecoin LTCUSD, +18.38% added 18.2% to $71.10, Bitcoin Cash BCHUSD, +28.53% erupted, trading 30% higher to $216.20 and XRP XRPUSD, +9.13% was trading at 34 cents, up 9% on the day.

Bitcoin futures opened sharply higher on Tuesday. The Cboe April contract XBTJ9, +14.55%  gained 14.9% to $4,740 and the CME April contract BTCJ9, +14.79%  added 15.2% at $4,750.

Read: The crypto market is healthier than you probably think, so this chart says

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2019-04-02 16:52:00Z
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Lyft is down more than 20% since its IPO — and could fall even more once short-sellers are allowed to pounce - Business Insider

Signage for Lyft is seen displayed at the NASDAQ MarketSite in Times Square in celebration of its initial public offering (IPO) on the NASDAQ Stock Market in New YorkReuters

• Lyft's stock price has plunged more than 25% since it began trading last week. 
• That decline happened before short-sellers have been allowed to bet against the stock.
• As more shares are available for lending, more downward price pressure is expected by S3 Partners, a firm that tracks Wall Street short-interest data. 

Lyft's stock price has sputtered since the ride-hailing company began trading on Friday, and could stall even further when the IPO dust settles, a Wall Street data analytics firm is warning.

S3 Partners, which tracks short interest data, said in a report Monday that it expects further downward pressure on prices once shares are available for lending to short-sellers, or those investors betting a stock's price to decline.

"With IPO shares not settled yet and therefore not physically in stock lending programs, and SEC regulations prohibiting IPO underwriters from lending out their shares to cover short sales for 30 days only a small fraction of the 34 million shares traded so far today are the result from short sales," Ihor Dusaniwsky, managing director of predictive analytics at S3, said. 

Shares of Lyft began trading on the Nasdaq on Friday at $87 apiece before sinking into the red to end the week down 10%. Monday, the stock's first full day of trading, saw shares slide another 6.7% to $69 — and the sell-off continued overnight into Tuesday.

"When the LYFT IPO shares begin settling tomorrow and lending programs see their lendable inventories grow, over the next several days we should see a dramatic increase in stock lending, short sale approvals and LYFT short selling," Dusaniwsky said.

"We can expect further price weakness when the shorts are allowed to put the pedal to the metal and redline their trading strategies."

Options contracts, which allow retail investors to somewhat mimic professional investors' bets against a stock price, are also expected to launch on Thursday, Chicago-based Cboe Global Markets said in a press release on Monday. 

Wall Street analysts that have launched coverage of Lyft so far agree the stock is close to an appropriate valuation, with an average price target of $71, or roughly 4% above Tuesday's prices.

More on Lyft's IPO:

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2019-04-02 15:14:28Z
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